IRAQ: Then, Now & Future (at RCMI)
Keynote speech by Jawad Hashim, presented at the Royal Canadian Military Institute, on Wednesday, April 21, 2010. Hashim discussed Iraq’s past history, present times and the country’s future. The content of this particular keynote (along with the document & slideshow files) was updated and slightly more different than the keynote presented at the Walter Reed Army Institute Of Research, Washington DC, on Wednesday, December 16, 2009. In his keynote address, Dr. Hashim began with a short historical outline of Iraq, after which he provided basic information about the structure of Iraq’s population and administration. He then provided further statistical data about Iraq until 1980, i.e. prior to Saddam’s absolute rule, followed with a short description of Iraq under Saddam. Hashim concluded his keynote by going into the success story of liberated Iraq; and Canada’s role in the liberated Iraq.
IRAQ: Then, Now & Future
Ladies & Gentlemen…
It is an honor to be invited to address this formidable institute — the RCMI. In particular, my thanks to Colonel Chrish Corrigan and to my friend of 30 years Matthew Gaasenbeek, former President of RCMI, whom I came to know since 1983.
At the outset, I would like to emphasize that any discussion of Iraq must begin with an understanding of where Iraq was before April 9th 2003 ̶ the day of its liberation. Iraq of Saddam Hussein was not a peaceful democracy nor a country of social justice and tolerance as this great country Canada. Iraq of Saddam Hussein was not a country where governments succeeded each other peacefully through the ballot-box. No, Iraq, since Saddam’s absolute rule from July 1979 until his downfall, was a country occupied by a foreign ideology ̶ the fascist idea of Ba’athism ̶ a country in which the regime was at war with the people ̶ a regime that was at war with its neighbors and the world. Iraq was not tranquil. It was a dystopia governed by a genocidal dictatorship; it was a cemetery below ground and a concentration camp above.(1)
In my address today, I will show you that the liberation of Iraq is a success. It is not doom-&-gloom as reported by the so-called “experts” embedded in international media outlets. The ouster of Saddam Hussein’s regime was a victory for the people of Iraq and for human rights.
I will begin with a short historical outline of Iraq, after which I’ll provide basic information about the structure of Iraq’s population and administration. Then, I will inundate you with statistical data about Iraq until 1980, i.e. prior to Saddam’s absolute rule. This will be followed with a short description of Iraq under Saddam. Then I’ll go to the success story of liberated Iraq; and Canada’s role in the liberated Iraq.
Table 1: Iraq’s Historical Timeline
|1533 — 1917||
|1950 — 1952||
|2003 (April 9th)||
IRAQ: Political Map
IRAQ: Then, Now & Future
As a modern state, Iraq is quite young. But the history of the land —the land of Mesopotamia— dates back more than 5000 years. The country that is Iraq today consisted under the Ottoman Empire of three Turkish vilayets (provinces) of Mosul (North), Baghdad (central) and Basra (South). Iraq occupies roughly what was once ancient Mesopotamia: one of the cradle of human civilization.
Iraq of today is an artificial British creation stitched together from the ruins of the old Ottoman empire. During World War I, Iraq was occupied by Britain. In 1932, it attained independence as a monarchy and was admitted to the League of Nations (later United Nations).
Iraq is located in the Middle East. It has borders with the following countries:
|Country||Length of Border (km)|
| Iraq’s total area is
For the purpose of this paper, I will divide the administrative history of Iraq into three distinct eras:
1920 — 1958. Monarchy Era (456 Months)
1958 — 2003. The Republic Dictatorship Era (540 Months)
|Jul/58 — Feb/63||
|Feb/63 — Nov/63||
|Nov/63 — Jul/68||
|Jul/68 — Jul/79||
|Jul/79 — Apr/03||
2003 — Present. The Republic Democratic Era
|Apr/03 — Present||
|Apr/03 — Nov/03||
|Jun/04 — Jan/05||
|May/05 — May/06||
|May/06 — Present||
Iraq’s Administration | April 2003 ‒ Present
Population of Iraq
Iraq’s population of 29-million comprises a wide diversity of religious and ethnic groups. Approximately 95% are Muslims. The majority of the Arabs in northern Iraq, the Kurds, the Turkomans and some inhabitants of Baghdad and Basra are Sunni; while the Arabs in the south and centre are Shiite.
There are also small Christian communities, as well as Sabians and Yazidis.
The Shia Arabs constitute approximately 60–65% of total population. While the majority of Iraqi Muslims are Shiite, the Sunni minority (until the fall of Saddam’s regime in April 2003) were in control of the country through the army, economic wealth and other instruments of power.
The Sunni dominance goes back to the Ottoman period. Thus, during the monarchy era (which lasted 456 months or 38 years, from 1920 until July 14, 1958), Iraq had 59 cabinets headed by Sunni prime ministers except in five times were the prime ministers being Shiite for 23 months out of 456 months.
During the republic era from 1958 until April 2003, that is 540 months (45 years), only once the prime minister was a Shiite for 10 months only.
IRAQ: Religious & Ethnic Group Map
Iraq Until The Early 1980’s — Prior To Saddam’s Absolute Rule
Iraq, until early 1980, was one of the more prosperous and advanced of the Arab countries. Indeed, one can safely say that Iraq was an upper-middle income country with a substantial middle-class, considerable technical capacity, high female participation in education and economy, and relatively high-standards overall in education and health-care.(2)
By 1980, Iraq’s per capita income was $4,000; Iraqi Dinar (ID)currency exchange-rate versus US$ was US$3.5 to one ID; foreign-exchange reserves US$35 billion; inflation-rate less than 6% per annum; primary school enrollment 100%; secondary school enrollment more than 57%; life expectancy 67 years; and Iraq was free of foreign debt.
Iraq Under Saddam, 1979 ‒ 2003
In July 1979, Saddam Hussein became the President of Iraq. By August 1979, he began a pattern of ruthless manipulation and extermination. This pattern continued until the fall of his regime on April 9, 2003.
For quarter of a century, the regime of Saddam engaged in three wars and has experienced more than ten years of economic sanctions and political isolation.
During those dark years, many hundreds of thousands of Iraqis have disappeared or been killed. All these events had devastating effects on Iraq’s economy and society. In 1991, United Nations said that Iraq had been reduced to a pre-industrial state.(3)
Saddam adopted a unique and unparalleled model of power which glorified terror. Three decades of strict control had affected Iraqi culture. Iraqis were systematically bombarded with state-crafted defunct culture and fabricated propaganda.
As a result, authentic Iraqi intellectuals, writers, novelists, artists and poets found themselves marginalized, if not disappeared, murdered or killed in a mysterious car accident! The mass graves unearthed after the liberation are one of several Saddam’s atrocities.
Saddam’s Litany Of Destruction
To comprehend the scale and magnitude of the damage and destruction, we have to search for economic and social indicators.(4) These indicators are:
- Saddam’s wars with Iran and invasion of Kuwait resulted in one million Iraqis killed, 800,000 widows, and 5-million orphans.
- During Saddam’s absolute rule, there were 309,000 political prisoners; 100,000 detainees at secret police and intelligent service facilities; and 1,000,000 exiles.
- In 1980, the GDP was US$53.9 billion falling to US$26.9 billion in 1989, and further falling to a mere US$6.9 billion in 1994.
- In 1980, per capita income was over US$4,000 falling to US$1,500 in 1989, and to US$350 in 1996. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), the per capita income fluctuated between US$448 to US$644 from 1996–2002.(5)
- In 1980, Iraq had US$35 billion in foreign-exchange reserves. By 1987, this reserve had fallen to US$2 billion.
- In 1970, the official rate of exchange was US$3.5 per one Iraqi Dinar (ID). By 1990, the exchange-rate became 8ID to one US Dollar. By December 1995, the rate reached as low as 2660ID to one US Dollar. By the fall of Saddam, the rate was in the region of 3000ID to one US Dollar!
- Up to 1979, annual inflation-rate did not exceed 6%. By 1989, the inflation-rate was estimated to be 400%. With Saddam’s policy of simply printing money to meet expenditure, the annual rate of inflation jumped to 2000% in the open market food prices between 1990–1991.(6)
- Prior to Saddam’s war adventures, Iraq had been free of foreign debt. By the fall of his regime, Iraq’s foreign debt was estimated to exceed US$108 billion, $47 billion of which is calculated as interest and $30 billion payable to the Gulf States.(7)
- In 1980,primary school enrollment rate of the relevant age-group was 100%. By 1998, the rate had fallen to 88%.
- In 1980, secondary school enrollment was 57%, declining year after year to 20% in 1998.
- In 1980, mortality rate for children under 5 years of age was 90 per thousand. In the year 2000, the rate was 121.
- Until 1980, Iraq had life-expectancy of 67 years but had fallen to 61 years by the year 2000.
- In a nutshell, when the Saddam regime was put to an end on April 9, 2003, the liberated Iraq inherited a degraded economy and a squandered wealth and public resources that were directed for Saddam’s regime preservation and family enrichment.
The Liberated Iraq — 2003 and Beyond
When the Saddam regime fell on April 9, 2003, the liberators encountered immense difficulties in their attempt to begin rebuilding Iraq’s infrastructures, economic and social institutions, and the creation of business environment that would attract capital, technology and skills to modernize the shattered country.
Under the auspices of the United States, immediate shock-therapy programs were implemented. These included:
Promulgation of market friendly legislations to encourage private investments;
Foreign banks were permitted to establish operations and purchase equity shares in existing Iraqi banks;
Income and corporate taxes were capped at 15%;
Tariffs were reduced to a universal 5% with none on food, medicines, books and humanitarian imports;
Necessary measures to privatize state-owned enterprises (except the oil sector); and
Changing the Iraqi currency and taking the necessary measures for the ID appreciations.
Between 2003 and 2009, Iraq, with financial and technical support of the United States made impressive progress in political, economic and social fields. What makes the progress more important is the fact that it was achieved despite the violence, insurgent activities and the dreams of the enemies of Iraq. Here are few indicators of progress:
- In the year 2000, GDP was US$25.9 billion. In 2006, GDP rose by 191% to reach US$49.5 billion. And in 2008 it reached US$94.00 billion, i.e. 363% increases from its level of the year 2000. The IMF and IBRD expect Iraq’s GDP to reach US$132.0 billion in 2013 — an increase of 510% compared with GDP in 2000.
- Per capita income which was below US$650 in 2002 jumped to US$1,720 in 2006 and to US$3,100 in 2008, and, according to IMF and IBRD, will reach US$3,900 in the year 2013.(8)
- The exchange-rate of Iraqi Dinar versus US$, which revolved around 2600–3000 ID per one US$, became 1,467 in 2006 and 1,100 in 2008. As I understand, the Central Bank of Iraq intends to achieve a much better exchange-rate between the dinar and the dollar.
- The consumer price inflation rate which exceeded 2000% in the year 2000 was reduced to 65% in 2006 and to 12% in 2008. The IMF and IBRD expect further reduction of the inflation rate to 10% by the end of 2009, and then to 8% in 2010 and to 7% by the end of 2011.
- Until April 2003, no mobile phones, internet access or satellite televisions ever existed in Iraq. Now every Iraqi has access to those three aforementioned communication/media channels.
- Billions of dollars were spent on repairing schools, medical centers, roads, oil facilities, ports, airports and other infrastructures.
- Permanent constitution and freely-elected members of Parliament.
- Between 2003 and 2006, U.S. grant assistance for Iraq’s reconstruction totaled US $30 billion. This figure (adjusted for inflation) is double what the U.S. spent in Japan from 1946–1952 and equivalent to the amount spent in Germany during the same period 1946–1952.(9)
IRAQ of Future
The year 2010 is a turning-point and a very important year in the history of Iraq and in the history of its relationship with the western world in general and with the United States in particular. Iraq just came out of very important elections, described by the U.N. and all international observers as being unique, fair and transparent. As President George W. Bush declared in November 2003,
Iraqi democracy will succeed and that success will send forth the news” from Damascus to Tehran that freedom can be the future of every nation.
There is no doubt the future of Iraq will affect the way the Middle East and the Arab world in particular evolve in the next decade and beyond. Iraq of future will be tested by a combination of security, political and economic challenges. But Iraq will survive these challenges. I am confident that the political leadership will approach the government that will emanate from the March-7th-2010 elections with a broader vision of obstacles that need to be overcome.
There are, however, many fundamental challenges to overcome, mainly:
Dealing with Iraq’s difficult neighbours;
Economic, political & social transformations
As a country with Shiites and Kurds constituting 80% of its population, Iraq is surrounded with neighbors who are determined to strangle the democratic process and to see the instability of Iraq continue. Each one of these “neighbors” has different agenda and reasons for seeing the instability there continue, and each one of them uses different methods to influence events.(10)
Saudi Arabia (which is an enemy of any democracy) ranks at the top of enemies of Iraq. Since the liberation of Iraq in 2003, Saudi Arabia has been the supplier of the majority of suicide-bombers in Iraq. Its hostility towards post-Saddam democratic Iraq has three intertwined roots:(11) (i) religious, (ii) political, and (iii) economic.
The religious factor is reflected in the hatred of Wahabism —Saudi Arabia’s religion— towards the Shia sect of Islam (→ as Shia being the religion of the majority in Iraq).
Because the Saudi ruling family is concerned that an Iraq with government representing the Shia majority, Iraq will constitute a serious source of instability in Saudi Arabia’s oil-rich areas where the population is predominantly Shia and linked tribally with Shia of Southern Iraq.
The economic factor, on the other hand, is Saudi Arabia’s nightmare. Saudi Arabia, for now, is the largest oil-producing country among OPEC members. Each member of OPEC is subject to quota-system of oil production. The quota is a factor of each member’s proven oil reserves. Because of its high level of proven crude oil reserves (about 264 billion barrels), Saudi Arabia at present is the dominant force in OPEC and the international oil market.
Iraq’s proven oil reserves of some 115 billion barrels was based on outdated 40- years-old geological surveys. But recent modern geological 3D seismic surveys elevate Iraq’s proven oil reserves to 350 billion barrels, thus exceeding the proven Saudi reserves.
Iraq is currently producing 2.4 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil. Iraq, however, will increase its crude production sharply. Recently Iraq signed few contracts to develop six giant oil fields and two natural gas fields with several international oil companies (non of them American).(12) The contracts will gradually increase Iraq’s crude oil production to 4.5 millions b/d in the short term and to 12–14 million b/d by 2020.
Hence, a resurgent Iraq with enormous potential of proven oil reserves and aspiration to produce more than 12 million b/d of oil within the next few years could dislodge Saudi Arabia from its prominent position in OPEC and reduce its influence in the international market.
Syria, on the other hand, is the facilitator of terrorist-acts in Iraq. It considers any democratic transformation a threat to its one-party Ba’athist control. The Syrian government continue to undercut Iraq’s security in order to bog down American forces which it feels might otherwise threaten the Syrian regime. Syria is the “hub” for the relocation of terrorist operatives to Iraq. Syrian Intelligence Service is actively training the jihadis and supervising their infiltration across the border to Iraq. Simply put, Syria, by embracing certain elements of Iraqi Ba’athist (commonly known as the Syrian Wing) dreams to install a Ba’athist government in Iraq similar to its own brand of Ba’ath ideology.
Qatar and Jordan
Qatar and Jordan, being ruled by Sunni autocratic government, cannot see Iraq’s Shia community achieving a political voice proportional to their majority status, after being marginalized and disfranchised for more than eight decades of systematic oppression. Recently it has been reported in Arab media that Qatar paid $20 million to five exiled Iraqi groups to destabilize the March 2010 elections in Iraq.
Iran, throughout history, has been involved in Iraq’s affairs. With more than 1450 kilometers border with Iraq, border skirmishes has been recurrent events between the two countries. Its claim to half of Shat-Al-Arab waterway led to the 1975 Algiers Agreement, but border disputes continued until today’s date.
Additionally, Iran does not want to see an independent Arab Shia voice it cannot control. Iran has a historical aspiration for dominating influence in the Gulf region in competition with Iraq. It considers the presence of American forces in Iraq as a serious threat to such aspiration. For this alone, Iran would better see a failed U.S. in Iraq and consequently a failed, weak and chaotic Iraq.
Turkey is not an enemy of Iraq but is agitated with the presence of Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in Iraq’s Kurdistan and the Kurds’ intention towards the oil-rich city of Kirkuk, fearing precedent which benefits Iraqi Kurds. Turkey remains distinctly opposed to anything “Kurdish” in Iraq including the Kurdistan Region.
Turkey, however, is exerting pressure on the Iraqi government through the control of water-flow to Iraq to the extent that the shortage of water may cause unspeakable hardship to the Iraqi people. Here, again the American administration must play a pivotal role to solve this serious problem once and for all.
The Economic, Political & Social Transformation
Oil is the most salient feature of the Iraqi economy. It holds the potential to be•come the world’s largest oil producer. According to an outdated (40-years-old) US Geological Survey (USGS), Iraq holds the world’s second largest proven reserves estimated to range between 115–129 billion barrels. According to petroleum experts, Iraq’s actual proven oil reserves is 350 billion barrels and an additional probable reserves of 220 billion barrels.(13)
However, for Iraq to become a super-giant oil producer and exporter of oil, the industry would require large financial investments in technical services, capital equipments, and infrastructures. This is one of the great challenges facing the new Iraq. But it is a challenge which could easily be met. As mentioned earlier, Iraq has signed recently several contracts with international oil companies to upgrade its oil facilities and to increase its production capacity to more than 12 million b/d by 2020. What makes Iraq’s oil attractive is its low costs of production which is the lowest in the world. Average investment cost (including drilling) is about US$1 per cumulative barrel, and average operating cost is estimated at about US$1.50 per cumulative barrel.(14)
Iraq also contains 110 trillion cubic-feet of proven natural gas reserves and ab•out 150 trillion cubic-feet in probable reserves. Prior to the liberation of Iraq, and because of Saddam’s war adventures, the oil sector was devastated. Restoring this sector is of paramount importance. It is a challenging task for which the new Iraq is determined to undertake, bearing in mind that Iraq is endowed with human capital which reflects a long tradition of education, scientific skills, trading skills and entrepreneurial spirit. As Petroleum Intelligence Weekly stated in March 12, 2003, “Iraq is well-primed for big oil opening.” Modernization of the oil sector has began since 2003, and as of March 2009 the United States had allocated more than US$2 billion to further enhance the modernization process.(15)
According to numerous reports by several international organizations such as the IMF and IBRD, Iraq has made and still is making a real progress in political, economical and security dimensions. But the road ahead is full of other challenges:
- The type of federal system to be adopted for Iraq with proper and clear division of power between the central and regional government.
- The demarcation of the boundaries of Kurdistan region and the final status of Kirkuk.
- The modalities of oil revenues sharing.
- The nature of political systems.
- Iraq’s relationship with neighboring countries and its place in the broader geopolitical context.
- Strengthening its alliance with the West, especially with its liberator United States of America to defend its integrity, borders, stability and its democratic system.
In conclusion, let me say a word on Canada’s role in helping the new Iraq.
Canada is the fourth largest contributor in the International Reconstruction Fund Facility For Iraq (IRFFI) and chairs its donor committee. Canadian taxpayers have been extremely generous in donating a fund of C$300 million for the reconstruction of Iraq.(16)
Canada also provided valuable support, advice and consultation to Iraq’s parliamentarians and cilvil society institutions. Elections Canada, the Forum of Federation, and Carleton University backed by public funds, Canadian experts including Bob Rae, George Anderson, professor David Cameron (UFT), Ron Watts (Queen’s), John McGarry (Queen’s) and Richard Simeon (UFT) have all extended valuable, effective and concrete assistance to the democratic process in Iraq. During 2009, Canadian exports to Iraq increased by 163% to about half-billion dollars. However, Canada remains the only G8 country that has not yet opened an embassy in Baghdad since 2004. Iraq is an important opportunity that Canadian companies should not miss.
Ladies & Gentlemen…
Though the new democratic Iraq will encounter many challenges ahead, a successful, prosperous and stable Iraq is now within reach. I am confident the people of Iraq will go to extraordinary efforts to make this come true. Iraqis can now look forward to a bright future, because that is where they will spend the rest of their lives.
(1) Extract from a statement by Iraq’s Ambassador to Ottawa; April 2007.
(2) See: Iraq’s Economy: Past, Present, Future; June 3, 2003; Report For Congress; code RL 31944.
(3) BBC-News / Country Profile: Iraq; July 28, 2009.
(4) Since 1980, Saddam issued several directives forbidding the publication of any economic and social data. They were considered state-secrets.
(5) EIU; Country Profile: Iraq, 2002/2003; July 2002. However, we must note that with wealth being concentrated in the hands of Saddam’s cronies, most Iraqis probably subsisted on a much smaller figure than the average would suggest.
(6) Another source estimated that the inflation-rate increased 5000% between 1990 and 1995. See: Anthony H. Cordesman, and Ahmed S. Hashim; Iraq: Sanctions & Beyond, (Boulder, CO; Westview Press, 1997), p. 144.
(7) See: Center For Strategic and International Studies; A Wise Peace: An Action Strategy For Post-Conflict Iraq, Supplement One; Background Information on Iraq’s Financial Obligation; January 23, 2003.
(8) The projected figures for 2013 are based on conservative assumptions for oil market price at US$50 per barrel.
(9) See: Center For American Progress: Progress in Iraq; July 25, 2006.
(10) For more details and analysis, see: Accepting Realities in Iraq; The Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chtham House); Briefing Paper; May 2007. Also see: The Future of Iraq: Democracy, Civil War, or Chaos?; by Michael Rubin; Middle East Review of International Affairs; September 2005.
(11) See: Dr. Nimrod Raphaeli; “Saudi Concerns About Iraq Oil (Revisited);” MEMRI; Inquiry & Analysis Series Report No. 537; December 14, 2009. Http://www.memri.org/report/en/print3836.htm
(12) The companies are: British Petroleum (BP); China National Petroleum Company (CNPC); Eni- Sinopec-OXY-Kogas; Lukoil (Russia); Statoil (Norway); Royal Dutch Shell; Petromas (Malaysia); a consortium of CNPC (CHina) + Total (France) and Petromas.
(13) The additional 220 billion barrels is based on a study by the Center For Global Energy Studies (CGES); MEES, VOL. XLVI, NO.12; March 24, 2003.
(14) Investment cost (capital) is total cost needed for drilling, production installation, transportation and loading oil in tankers. Operating cost is the running cost of an operation to make the oil available for shipment (e.g., maintenance, consumables, general and administrative).
(15) According to independent international studies, the cluster of super-giant oil fields of southern Iraq forms the largest known concentration of such fields in the world and accounts for 70-80% of Iraq’s proven oil reserves. See: Energy Information Administration (EIA); Department of Energy; USA Gov; http://www.eia.doe.gov/
(16) See: Statement by Iraq’s Ambassador to ottawa at the Rotary Club of Toronto; April 2007.
Hashim, Jawad. Reconstruction of Iraq — Post Saddam Hussein. Paper presented to The Spring Conference of the Atlantic Council of Canada; and The Royal Canadian Military Institute (RCMI). May 2003.
Iraq’s Economy: Past, Present, Future. Report For Congress. June 3, 2003. Code RL31944.
BBC News Online. Country Profile: Iraq. July 28, 2009.
Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU). Country Profile: Iraq, 2003/2004. July 2002.
Cordesman, Anthony and Hashim, A. S.. Iraq: Sanctions & Beyond. (Boulder, CO; Westview Press, 1997).
Center For Strategic & International Studies (CSIS). A Wise Peace: An Action Strategy For Post-Conflict Iraq. Supplemental One; Background Information On Iraq Financial Obligation. January 23, 2003.
Center For American Progress. Progress In Iraq. July 25, 2006.
International Bank For Reconstruction & Development (IBRD). Iraq: Country Brief. June 2009.
The Royal Institute of International Affairs (Chatham House). Accepting Realities In Iraq. Briefing Paper; May 2007.
Rubin, Michael. The Future of Iraq: Democracy, Civil War or Chaos. Middle-East Review of International Affairs. September 2005.
Probe Links Syria, Terror Network. The Los Angeles Times. April 16, 2004.
Rotella, Sebastian. A Road To Anbar Began in Italy. The Los Angeles Times. April 28, 2003.
MEES. Vol. XLVI, No. 12. March 24, 2003.
Energy Information Administration (EIA). Department Of Energy; USA Government.
International Monetary Fund (IMF). Program Note on Iraq. July 22, 2009.
IBRD; International Development Association (IDA); International Financial Corporation (IFC). Interim Strategy Note For The Republic of Iraq For the Period Mix FY09-FY11. February 19, 2009. Report No. 47304-1Q.
Library of Congress — Federal Division; Country Profile — Iraq. August 2006.
United Nations / World Bank. Joint Iraq Needs Assessment. October 2003.